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"The 2017 finalisation package of the Basel III reforms to bank capital regulation aims to make capital requirements more robust and consistent across banks. One of its most significant changes is the introduction of the ‘output floor’, which limits how far capital requirements calculated using internal models can fall below those based on standardised approaches. But the output floor is not just about capital levels. We find that it may tilt lending towards corporate loans and some riskier mortgages, and away from the safest mortgages. And if banks’ responses to past reforms are any guide, banks won’t wait until its full implementation in 2030 to start reacting."

"In my recent paper, I present a new model that helps assess risks in the UK housing market. Unlike traditional approaches that focus on average house price growth, the model estimates a full range of possible outcomes, allowing policymakers to identify potential risk of big house price drops. The analysis also highlights important regional differences: areas with more constrained housing supply tend to be more sensitive to changes in interest rates. Expanding supply can help ease price pressures. These insights can help improve the monitoring of housing market vulnerabilities and support financial stability policy."

"Jagdish Tripathy, Arzu Uluc, José-Luis Peydró and Francesc Rodriguez-Tous"

"Borrower-based macroprudential measures – such as limits on loan to income (LTI) and loan to value (LTV) ratios – have become a standard feature of the post-crisis regulatory landscape. A growing body of country-specific evidence suggests these measures are effective in moderating the self-reinforcing loop between mortgage credit and house prices, and in reducing default rates and limiting house price volatility during periods of economic stress. Yet their distributional consequences are less well understood. In a new paper, we survey the existing evidence and find that these tools deliver clear financial stability benefits, while also generating distributional effects across borrower groups. Further, we identify areas where future research is needed to provide a comprehensive welfare assessment of these measures."

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