Welcome to the detailed analysis for fallacyfiles.org. This domain is officially recognized as Fallacy Files Weblog Archive: August, 2026. According to their official web presence, their primary focus is: "An archive for the Fallacy Files Weblog for August, 2026.".
"Most of the previous entries in this series on the supposed health effects of coffee have been about claims that coffee is good for you, but rarely a study claims that drinking coffee is the opposite1. Here's a recent one."
"A study claiming that drinking very hot coffee increases the likelihood of cancer of the esophagus has recently been reported by several news outlets2. However, according to the study in question, the problem is not with coffee itself, but with drinking any very hot liquid, so that hot tea and hot chocolate are included."
"The headline claim is that drinking "scalding" hot beverages can triple the risk of esophageal cancer. Tripling the risk certainly sounds bad, but thrice what? It's a meaningless claim if we don't know what the risk of getting the cancer is for those who don't drink very hot beverages: three times zero is still zero."
"The tripling claim is a relative risk or risk ratio (RR), that is, the ratio between the people in the study who drank "very hot" drinks and ended up with cancer of the esophagus to those who didn't drank such hot drinks and still got it. The RR tells us that there were three times as many in the former group as in the latter, but how many were in the latter? Before we can evaluate the RR claim, we need to know the absolute risk (AR) of esophageal cancer, that is, the risk of getting it without drinking superheated beverages3."
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