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"One point well made in here is that the CDU/CSU’s consuming crisis leaves a lot of space for fringe politics. With that in mind, what’s become of the off-diagonal parties?"

"The furthest right party that’s considered acceptable can only have been disappointed with its showing. They picked up 150k votes from the Left party and lost in size to everyone else. The best it can say for itself is that it’s developed a strong regional base in the southern end of the former DDR, although on the flip side of that, it’s failed to deepen its base by making progress in the regional-level elections that would give it actual power. The net-gain data tells a story of competing for a very specific niche and failing on everything else. As such, they’ve moved from the acute phase to the chronic, installed firmly around 10% of the national vote and likely to get €50 million in state funding for their party foundation."

"As well as the running fights between the relatively respectable bits of the party around Alice Weidel and the openly neo-nazi ones around Björn Hocke, their biggest problem is the emergence of new competition post-pandemic, with a range of new options offering a stronger extremist kick than fiscal conservatism and culture-war themes and a helping of bizarre wackiness besides. The following chart, from this Süddeutsche Zeitung feature, illustrates a major part of their problem:"

"This shows the leading parties that didn’t make the 5% cut in each constituency. There’s a remarkably clear geographic dividing line from Stettin to roughly Saarbrücken. To the north, two animal rights parties (there are quite a few) did best. To the south, the Independent Voters stand out, having morphed during the pandemic from being a specifically Bavarian phenomenon as the CSU’s Mini-Me into a national anti-vax protest group. The interesting thing here is that they compete directly with the AfD and seem capable of operating across much of Germany while the AfD has become progressively more Saxon, so they are a serious problem for the far-right."

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