Matharena Domain Overview🔒 SSL Verified

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• ↓ Model analysis across MathArena
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"🎉 New (September 30): We published results for GPT-6.1 Sol (max) on ArXivMath and BrokenArXiv!"

"🎉 New (September 24): We published results for GPT-6 Sol and Opus-5.5 on ArXivMath and BrokenArXiv and AlephProver on ArXivLean!"

"Expected performance summarizes model strength across non-deprecated competitions, not just the selected benchmark above."

"Expected performance averages normalized scores across all questions from non-deprecated competitions, giving each question equal weight. For each model and question, we use the mean observed score over available runs when results exist, including zeroes and fractional scores. For missing results, we estimate the score with a two-parameter item-response theory model: for model ability $\theta_m$ and question difficulty $\beta_q$ with discrimination $\alpha_q$, we use $p_{m,q}=\sigma(\alpha_q(\theta_m-\beta_q))$. Parameters are fitted on existing data with fractional scores preserved. A model needs to have at least 42 answered questions to be included in the expected performance plots. For confidence intervals, we simulate binary outcomes with the fitted mean scores (a Bernoulli approximation) and refit the full IRT model on each simulated dataset. Each simulated score uses the same averaging rule on the fixed non-deprecated question set: simulated observed means where results exist, and refitted estimates where they are missing. The IRT component is similar to the Epoch Capability Index, with parameters $\alpha_q$ and $\beta_q$ fitted for each question. Our reported average combines observed and estimated scores as described above."

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Model analysis across MathArena