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"Gagan Kumar Thapa has consolidated his strength while Sher Bahadur Deuba has weakened. More than three dozen leaders have deserted Deuba to join the establishment faction led by Thapa. This new development inside the opposition Nepali Congress (NC) comes at a time when both factions are making parallel preparations to hold the party’s 15th General Convention, setting the NC on the path toward a formal split. Now, only a handful of top figures—such as Krishna Prasad Sitaula, Bimalendra Nidhi,Prakash Man Singh and Shashank Koirala—remain with Deuba. Shashank has taken charge of day-to-day affairs in the Deuba faction’s bid to organize its own general convention. Meanwhile, the Deuba camp remains hopeful that the Supreme Court will eventually grant them legitimacy. Shortly after last year’s Gen Z movement, Deuba drew widespread appreciation for two key reasons. First, he announced his retirement from active party politics, aligning himself with the movement's demands. Second, despite being severely beaten by protesters and seeing his private residence burned down, he publicly acknowledged the legitimacy of the Gen Z movement.  Subsequently, he named Purna Bahadur Khadka as acting party president, tasking him with organizing the party’s general convention as soon as possible. However, when Khadka’s faction refused to hold a convention prior to March 5 elections, the Thapa group organized special general convention and took control of the party, officially removing Deuba from the presidency. Deuba initially accepted this outcome, which was further validated by both the Election Commission and the Supreme Court. In official correspondence, he even refrained from using the title of party president. He chose not to contest the March 5 elections—likely because Thapa did not permit him to run. Conversely, scores of leaders closely aligned with Deuba who had opposed the special general convention—including Shekhar Koirala—contested the election under Thapa’s leadership. Following the election, the scenario began to shift as the Deuba faction reverted to its original stance, declaring they would not recognize Thapa as party president. Around this time, Deuba traveled to Singapore with his spouse for follow-up medical treatment. Many within the NC assumed he would step away permanently from active party politics, given his stature as a five-time Prime Minister and two-time party president. Simultaneously, the Nepalese government issued an arrest warrant against members of his family, though its attempt to secure an Interpol Red Corner Notice proved futile. In the second week of August, Deuba decided to return to Nepal, warning supporters that he might face arrest upon arrival. However, the Nepal Army and key external actors intervened to ensure he was not taken into custody. He returned to Nepal a day ahead of a national gathering organized by his loyalists. Interestingly, despite having previously stopped referring to himself as party president, Deuba began reclaiming the title and publicly advocated for a Hindu state. In the party office setup established by his loyalists, a nameplate identifying him as party president was installed, solidifying a direct Deuba vs. Thapa dynamic. Deuba gradually began opposing both the special general convention and the Supreme Court verdict, going so far as to claim that the judges had delivered their ruling under a climate of terror. It appears several senior party figures may have misled him, urging him to reassert leadership under the premise that the Thapa faction could only be counteracted if Deuba took center stage. Throughout this period, no formal dialogue occurred between Thapa and Deuba. This is because Deuba refused to sit for talks prior to a definitive court ruling. Deuba remains hopeful that the Supreme Court will overturn its previous ruling and restore the party leadership to him. However, the probability of an immediate verdict remains slim, and the party’s convention must be organized within the next few months. With both factions making parallel preparations to hold the 15th General Convention, the party is inching toward an inevitable formal split. Yet, Deuba suffered a massive setback after a key cohort of his closest leaders defected to join Thapa. According to party insiders, numerous figures within the faction strongly opposed dragging Deuba back into active office and disapproved of his recent public statements. They believe specific internal elements misled Deuba to further their own interests. Consequently, Deuba's political standing remains severely compromised, even if he manages to pull off a general convention. The new development means that the Deuba faction will now need to show greater flexibility toward party unification. During this period, Deuba’s actions have appeared deeply contradictory. On one hand, he pledged to wage a legal battle in the Supreme Court; on the other, he re-assumed the title of party president in direct defiance of existing court orders. More recently, he publicly denounced the special general convention and declared his intention to convene the 15th General Convention independently, appealing to party leaders and cadres to boycott the event hosted by the establishment faction. Opportunities for reconciliation between Thapa and Deuba were available, but Deuba repeatedly refused to negotiate until the Supreme Court issued a final decision. Thapa, for his part, remained firm, maintaining that his leadership was democratically mandated through the general convention and that there was little room for compromise. Meanwhile, a few senior NC leaders remain on the fence. Shekhar Koirala, who previously challenged Deuba for the party presidency, has refused to align with either camp and is instead calling for party unity. In a statement issued on Thursday, Koirala noted that he could not take joy in a party split. Similarly, Purna Bahadur Khadka—who briefly led the party following Deuba's retirement and managed the Deuba camp prior to his return—continues to maintain a neutral posture. These dynamic shifts leave Thapa holding the upper hand in any prospective negotiations. Armed with new defectors from Deuba's camp, Thapa is unlikely to show much flexibility toward the opposing faction. Furthermore, time for a unified resolution is rapidly running out, as the party's ward-level conventions are set to begin in two days. If unity is not achieved at the ward level, the party will formally fracture into two separate organizations. Nevertheless, Party President Gagan Kumar Thapa maintains that he will exercise maximum flexibility to address any legitimate demands raised by the Deuba faction."

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