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"It has already been a remarkable, and arguably historic, East Pacific hurricane season. Three hurricanes (Lala, Lowell, Nolo) have now directly impacted the Hawaiian Islands (though none made formal landfall), with significant flooding and associated water/wind damage occurring on both Kauai and the Big Island). 2026 thus marks the first time in recorded history in which 2 or more hurricanes have each passed within 50 miles of Hawaii, and joined only a handful of other years when 3 storms came within 100 miles. And recent activity in the east and central Pacific basin has upped the ante even further: Hurricane Polo exploded from a modest swirl of tropical thunderstorms into a top-end Category 5 storm in less than 24 hours (eventually achieving peak sustained winds of 180 mph), becoming either the fastest, or second fastest, intensifying hurricane ever observed in the Central or Eastern Pacific basins (the only other possible contender was Hurricane Patricia in 2015). And total Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)–a measure of the total tropical storm and hurricane activity over a season–across the entire basin is now around 230% of average (a record for the calendar date)."

"And this is exactly as had been predicted: A rapidly strengthening El Niño event has, as anticipated, dramatically weakened storm-decapitating vertical wind shear in the Pacific and warmed tropical and subtropical ocean temperatures atop the already considerable global warming trend. And the tropical Atlantic, by contrast, is experiencing one of its quietest seasons on record due in large part to El Niño-induced strengthening of that same storm-decapitating wind shear. All in all, this represents a fairly dramatic validation of rather bold seasonal outlooks made as far back as the spring as soon as our big El Niño event began to come into focus."

"California has seen some tropical remnant moisture from other East Pacific hurricanes this summer and fall, and could yet see some more in weeks to come as activity remains greatly elevated. And far SoCal, including San Diego and Orange counties, may even see some brief local showers into Monday due to the remnants of yet another East Pacific hurricane (Odalys), but otherwise hurricane remnants should mostly stay away from California over the next 7 days or so (at least). With the big ridge pattern building (see below), there is about a 5-10% chance that the next round of hurricane development could send more moisture California’s way later in October; for now, that’s a low-but-not-zero possibility to keep an eye on."

"Hurricane Polo, meanwhile, will make landfall early Monday on the south-central Baja California peninsula. This will be a significant Category 2/3 storm when it does so, and widespread heavy rainfall is expected across most of the peninsula (where rain is often sparse, and where flash flooding is almost guaranteed). Despite the storm’s strength, it will fortunately be making landfall in a rather sparsely populated area (though local impacts will still be substantial)."

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A parade of East Pacific hurricanes will miss CA (but soak the interior Southwest) before major, long-duration autumn heatwave builds