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"Daily briefings, 7,600+ real-time charts, and macro insights from Dr. Ed Yardeni and his research team."

"I. Yen-Carry Trade Unwinding? The “yen‑carry trade” has been a key feature of global financial markets since roughly 2012. It rested on two pillars: ultra-low Japanese interest rates and either a weak or relatively stable yen. Hedge funds could borrow funds cheaply in yen, convert the proceeds to other currencies, and buy government bonds in those currencies. The beauty of this trade is that it increased downward pressure on the yen as long as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept its official policy rate near zero (chart). Today, both pillars are cracking. Since early 2024, after years of near-zero and even negative rates, the BOJ has raised its official policy rate to 1.0%, the highest since 1995, with another 25bps hike expected tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, the yen has become more volatile and is expected to strengthen in response to tighter monetary policy. After weakening to around ¥163 per dollar, near a four-decade low, it has rallied since late July following joint Japan-US intervention in the forex market. Higher Japanese interest rates and likely further yen appreciation have been forcing traders to unwind their yen-carry trades. This might explain the rout in the global bond market since 2024. Japan’s bond market confirms the BOJ has more tightening to do. JGB yields have risen sharply alongside the policy rate but remain well above it across the curve (chart). Japan’s Bond Vigilantes are signaling that monetary policy remains too accommodative. Higher Japanese bond yields also encourage Japanese bond investors to return home and reduce their exposure to foreign bonds, especially if the yen continues to rally. The surge in the 10-year JGB yield has occurred alongside a broad rise in global government bond yields (chart). In our view, the unwinding of yen-funded positions may be a key contributor to the synchronized rise in these bond yields. Japan is leading the global bond selloff. Its 10-year yield is up 93bps this year, one of the largest increases globally (chart). We will be interested to see how the BOJ's rate decision affects global yields tomorrow. II. US Capital Flows Holdings of US Treasuries by all Japanese accounts (both private and official) have declined recently and appear to be trending lower (chart). The Japanese may be unwinding their overseas positions in global bonds too, as domestic yields rise, making JGBs more attractive again. Total private foreign purchases of US Treasury notes and bonds fell to $263.4 billion over the past 12 months, the lowest since 2022. Purchases of US corporate bonds totaled $392.3 billion over the past 12 months, as foreign investors increasingly favor investment-grade debt tied to the AI buildout (chart). The shift in the composition of foreign demand for US assets is also clear over the past three months through July. Equities attracted the largest inflows, followed by corporate bonds, while purchases of Treasury notes and bonds were much smaller (chart). Now get this: Over the past 12 months, foreigners purchased a record $941.9 billion in US equities (chart)! This includes $139.6 billion in US equity purchases by foreign official accounts over the past 12 months. In aggregate, private net foreign capital inflows into the US remained elevated at around $1.2 trillion over the past 12 months (chart). Net inflows from foreign official accounts totaled just $31.7 billion. III. US Economic Indicators The strength of the US economy remains the key reason private foreign inflows into US equities and corporate bonds are so strong. Here is a look: (1) Jobless claims. The US labor market remains in good shape. Initial jobless claims fell to 196,000 during the week of September 11 and have now come in below 200,000 five times this year, versus just once in 2025 (chart). Meanwhile, the four-week moving average of continuing claims fell to its lowest level since January 2024 and has declined for four consecutive weeks. (2) Consumer spending. After the August retail sales report showed consumer spending remained robust, Redbook data suggest that strength has carried into September. Same-store sales rose 8.4% y/y during the week of September 11, well above the 5.8% average in 2025 (chart). Bank of America’s August Consumer Checkpoint Survey also points to robust spending. Card spending per household rose 0.9% m/m and 4.5% y/y, more than four times the 2025 average. Excluding gasoline, spending rose 3.7% y/y, more than 2.5 times the 2025 pace. (3) Manufacturing. Economic activity in manufacturing also remains remarkably robust. The average of the New York and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing indexes remained elevated at 22.7 in September, suggesting the national M-PMI likely remained comfortably in expansion territory (chart). The regional prices-paid and prices-received indexes remained high, suggesting that inflation pressures remain troublesome (chart)."

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"I. The Fed Today marked the conclusion of the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. The Fed's monetary policy committee delivered a widely anticipated 25bps increase in the federal funds rate (FFR), raising the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. Here are five key takeaways from today’s decision: (1) The decision was unanimous. The FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the FFR by 25bps, showing unanimous agreement that tighter monetary policy is warranted. During his press conference today, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the vote “shows our resolve to achieve price stability on a timelier basis.” He pointed to three developments since July that brought the Committee together: stronger economic growth, insufficient improvement in inflation, and increased geopolitical risks. We reckon that the re-escalation of the war in the Middle East and the resulting prospect of more inflationary pressures from higher-for-longer oil prices was the deciding factor. (2) Inflation remains the Fed’s predominant concern. Warsh said “inflation is too high and has been for too long” and that the Fed’s “predominant focus is on the price stability side of our mandate.” He added that this summer’s inflation readings “do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved,” with several key measures still running above 3.0% y/y. The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) reinforced that message, with 2026 headline and core PCED forecasts revised slightly higher and inflation not forecast to return fully to the Fed’s target of 2.0% y/y until 2029 (chart). (3) The economy is stronger than the Fed thought in June. Warsh repeatedly emphasized that the “American economy appears to be strengthening,” pointing to improving hiring, private-sector earnings, business capital investment, and robust credit flows. He also said he would be “hard-pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive,” a view widely shared across the Committee. The SEP similarly revised growth modestly higher and unemployment lower to 4.1% through 2028 (chart). Warsh also characterized the labor market as essentially at full employment, saying the “labor side of the Fed’s congressional remit is in good shape.” That gives the Fed more room to focus on the inflation side of its dual mandate. (4) The bar for another rate hike is low. The median of the 19 participants now expects another 25bps hike this year, no cuts in 2027, and only gradual easing thereafter, suggesting that today’s move was not intended as a one-and-done increase (chart). Four participants expect a third rate hike this year, while eight expect it in 2027. Warsh refused to pre-commit, saying “I’m not in the forward guidance business,” but his reaction function was clear. Underlying inflation must move toward 2.0% “clearly and at sufficient speed,” and he said today that “this standard has not been satisfied.” He also stressed that the Committee had merely “removed a dose of accommodation” and remains “hard-pressed” to describe financial conditions as “restrictive.” Unless inflation moderates clearly, the case for another hike remains intact while economic growth is strong, the labor market is near full employment, and financial conditions are not restrictive. II. US Economy As the Fed delivered a hawkish rate hike, the latest economic data reinforced both the remarkable strength of the economy and the persistence of inflation. Here’s a look: (1) Retail sales. August retail sales rose 1.2% m/m, above the 0.8% expected and the strongest gain since March 2026 (chart). Control-group sales, used in calculating GDP, surged 1.4% versus 0.5% expected. That was the strongest increase in nearly two years. The strength was broad-based, with 12 of 13 categories rising. Gasoline-station receipts jumped 3.1% as prices at the pump averaged about $4.06 per gallon in August, yet discretionary spending remained strong: food services & drinking places rose 1.2%, the most since May, while sporting goods also increased 1.2%. Nonstore retail sales jumped 2.6% m/m to a record high (chart). (2) GDP. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracking model revised its Q3 real GDP growth estimate up from 4.4% to 5.1% (saar). The upgrade was driven largely by stronger consumer spending, with real PCE growth now tracking at 4.1%, up from 3.6% (chart). That would mark the strongest quarterly increase in consumer spending since Q1-2023. Business spending also remains robust, reinforcing the picture of an economy supported by both resilient consumers and strong capital spending. (3) ADP. A key reason for the resilience in consumer spending is the strength of the labor market. US private employers added an average of 16,250 jobs per week in the four weeks ending August 29, the most since early July (chart). That is consistent with a monthly pace of roughly 65,000 jobs, suggesting that the economy continues to operate at full employment. (4) Import prices. August's data on import prices point to persistent inflation pressures. The import price index rose 7.0% y/y in last month, the fastest pace since August 2022. Petroleum import prices rose 27.3%. But even excluding petroleum, import prices rose 5.5%, the highest increase since May 2022 (chart). Import prices from the newly industrialized Asian countries surged 12.6% y/y in August, reflecting AI-related demand for semiconductors, servers, memory, and other electronics outstripping supply (chart). That suggests the AI buildout will remain inflationary for now, before AI brings the fruits of disinflationary productivity growth."